Rob PratherPlates Are Full
2016 November US Crop Report
Happy Thanksgiving,
USDA reports that post-harvest corn and soybean supplies exceed last year’s numbers. Corn values remain flat to lower. Soybean prices continue to steadily rise due to what appears to be some market lag resulting from South American supplies being a bit behind schedule. For the near term, farmers look to a much-deserved rest and will feast with their family during the upcoming Thanksgiving Holiday. In the longer term, the possibility of freight increases and global over-supply has farmers seeking stability vs opportunity. Stability means marketing decisions for next year will most likely be completed mid-December. This could compromise some of the specialty supplies as farmers market supplies and embrace some early purchase inputs (seeds, chemicals) to ensure their bottom line is secured. A good next season in South America combined with a good next year in the US could move available soybean supplies from over-supply to a flat-out glut.
Best Regards,
Rob Prather
Good Crop, Bad Crop
2016 September US Crop Report
Hello Everyone,
The current CBOT is up slightly to @ $9.80 USD/bu or @ $360 USD/mt. Speculations of new crop harvest delays due to late-season rains could be the uptrend driver. Although delays are predicted, they should be very little.
In fields throughout the soybean growing areas, farmers are reporting a disease called sudden death. I've seen it as well in my tours and it is quite noticeable in some fields. Basically there will be patches of seemingly mature harvest ready beans within a field of soybeans still in the green or yellowing phase of maturity. BUT, in almost every case, the farmer is not worried at all about sudden death affecting yields this year because the overall crop yield will be high.
Statements such as record yield, bumper crop, and bin-buster seem to coincide with farmers shaking their heads in disbelief on how good the overall crop yields look. Most reports on the local level indicate an excellent crop will be the result after harvest. Given the current stage of maturity, harvest is at least a month away for some and farther away for most.
As for CBOT price trends, there isn't much support to indicate CBOT will get below $9 USD/bu at this time. However with market supply possibly reaching new levels, global currency moves and the uncertainty of an election year at-hand, we could see a new bottom established. Buyers with advance new crop contracts in-hand structured as cost-plus are in an excellent position to ride the CBOT into harvest and capture/cover some pricing exposures at advantageous levels.
Best Regards,
Rob Prather
Forecast a Winner
2016 August US Crop Report
Hi Again,
I have added some new members to the list for the August report. Welcome!
August 5th, 2016 CBOT prices ended the trading week on a rally with November new crop soybeans up $0.18/bu ($6.62/mt) closing at $9.75/bu ($385.25/mt).
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/grain-and-oilseed/soybean.html
Current crop conditions throughout the Midwest look to be good to excellent with rains providing average to above average moisture. This is in stark contrast to the forecasted drought at the beginning of the growing season. In either case, 2015 and 2016 crops remain a strong buyers market in terms of price as long as those bids are more attractive than the easy cash flow from local crush.
2016 soybean supply should overall be strong as long as the current weather patterns hold. The Farmers Almanac forecasts a longer warm temperature summer season well into October allowing full maturity and avoiding frost. This should stabilize the CBOT at sub-$10 levels assuming 2015 crop supplies hold out until 2016 crop arrives as predicted.
For 2017 crop, single identity supplies will be available to those who plan ahead and most likely they can be contracted at 2016 crop basis and at lower CBOT levels for the near term. Longer term, specialty farmers are being pulled away from food production by higher grower premiums for domestic US seed production of new roundup and liberty link soybean varieties. It doesn't mean Non-gmo won't be available, it just means some specialty varieties will be removed from the market through attrition.
As always, planning ahead is the key. If there are any questions let me know.
Best Regards,
Rob Prather